Citigroup Sees Bitcoin Hitting $199K if ETF Inflows Maintain Strong Momentum

Financial giant Citigroup has rolled out fresh projections for Bitcoin’s price trajectory through 2025, with analysts Nathaniel Rupert and Alex Saunders mapping out three distinct scenarios that hinge on a single critical factor: the flow of capital into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Three Scenarios Paint Different Pictures for Bitcoin’s Future

The most optimistic outlook from Citi envisions Bitcoin climbing to $199,000 by year’s end, a scenario that would require ETF inflows to surge beyond their current pace. The momentum behind this projection seems plausible when considering BlackRock’s IBIT fund, which recently crossed the $80 billion mark in assets under management. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas expects this figure to reach $100 billion in the near future.

Citi Forecasts #Bitcoin to Reach $199K by Year-End. #BTC🧵🧵🧵 pic.twitter.com/u4ddeZKgoQ

— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) July 25, 2025

Citi’s research reveals a compelling correlation: every billion dollars flowing into Bitcoin ETFs translates to approximately a 3.6% bump in the cryptocurrency’s price. Should institutional investors maintain their appetite for these regulated products, Bitcoin could shatter its previous all-time highs.

The middle-ground projection suggests Bitcoin will settle around $135,000 by December’s close. This baseline scenario assumes roughly $15 billion in total ETF inflows throughout the year, representing a modest increase from the previous market cycle. The forecast banks on steady institutional participation and consistent growth in ETF product offerings.

While Citi didn’t specify an exact price target for their bearish scenario, the analysts warn that any significant reduction in ETF inflows could spell trouble. The concentration of Bitcoin ownership presents a particular risk, with treasury holdings and ETFs now controlling more than 10% of the circulating supply. Combined with thin market liquidity and sluggish token movement, even moderate selling pressure could spark substantial price declines.

ETF Flows Replace Traditional Bitcoin Valuation Models

In a notable shift, Citigroup has moved away from traditional Bitcoin valuation frameworks. The analysts have shelved once-popular models like stock-to-flow and production cost analysis, dismissing them as ineffective predictors in today’s market. Even adoption metrics based on active wallet addresses have lost their predictive power, according to the firm’s assessment.

The numbers tell a striking story: ETF flows have driven 41% of Bitcoin’s return variability this year alone. This marks a fundamental change in market dynamics, where regulated financial products have supplanted on-chain metrics as the primary market signal for institutional investors.

Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream finance continues to deepen. Major indices including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq now feature crypto-related stocks, giving traditional investors indirect exposure to Bitcoin through their standard portfolios. This development underscores how the cryptocurrency has evolved from a fringe asset to a component of conventional investment strategies.

The path forward appears straightforward in Citi’s view: sustained ETF demand will likely push prices higher, while any meaningful slowdown in inflows could trigger downward pressure. This binary outlook reflects the current market reality, where institutional adoption through regulated vehicles has become the dominant force shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Recent market movements, including Galaxy Digital’s sale of $1.18 billion worth of Bitcoin, serve as reminders that large transactions can still create short-term volatility within this framework.